Time for some baseball!

So, here we are a little over a week away from Major League Baseball Opening Day 2010. The Astros are finishing up spring training and have played remarkably well in my opinion. Now we all know that spring training games are about as useful in predicting how the actual season will go about as well as blind monkeys throwing darts at dartboards the size of a nickel, but nevertheless, the Astros have looked good. With that in mind, let’s break down this upcoming season and attempt to figure out how everything will pan out this year for the ‘stros.

Before we talk about what the Astros have going into this upcoming season, we have to take a look back at what we lost this past offseason. The most glaring discrepancy in the lineup is the loss of Miguel Tejada. Tejada was a free agent in the offseason and decided to go back to the Orioles organization with whom he had spent the better part of his major league career. Tejada was the Astros best hitter in the 2009 season. His team leading .313 batting average will be a major loss to a team that struggled hard to score runs last season. And while he only had 86 RBI’s last season, keep in mind that people actually have to be on base and generally in scoring position in order to score on a hit.

Another loss, the size of which could be debated longer than I am willing to spend on the topic, is the closer Jose Valverde. Valverde was unable to come even close to his national league leading 44 saves he achieved in 2008. Again though, this is more due to the fact that the Astros were rarely ever in a save situation at the end of ball games. His ERA of 2.33 was certainly not shabby and his arm will almost certainly be missed this year as the Astros did not go out on the open market and pick up another closer.

The refusal to go out on the free agent market and pick up veteran players at the positions of shortstop and closer mean that this will most likely be another down year (or “rebuilding year” for you optimists out there) even in the best scenario. It appears right now as if rookie Tommy Manzella will be the Astros’ opening day shortstop and rookie Brandon Lyon will be tasked with the duties of closer. Both of them seem to be having pretty decent spring trainings. Will they be able to fill the gaps left by two veteran powerhouses? That will have to remain to be seen.

One of the bigger disappointments for me was the realization that Kaz Matsui is still with the team. I suppose my dreams had me believing that his contract with the Astros was up at the end of the 2009 season, but alas, I was wrong. Matsui is one of those professional baseball oddball players that really makes you wonder how they managed to get multi-million dollar deals for being a below average player. Matsui is a perennial inning killer on offense and only slightly better than average at the second base position. Undoubtedly, the Astros will continue to march him out there as a starter and bat him in the 1 or 2 hole which means the chances of scoring first this season will remain low. If popping out to the first baseman in foul territory with runners on second and third with no out was a sport, Matsui would be the MVP.

Ok, with that out of my system, let’s move on to the starting rotation. If I had to sum up the rotation in one word, it would be this: terrifying. Last year, Roy Oswalt had what you might call an off year. Wandy Rodriguez somehow managed to end up becoming the ace of the ballclub. How many of you thought you’d ever hear yourselves thinking that!? These two are quite frankly going to both have career years in order for the Astros to be competitive. That’s because after them, there is really nobody. Brett Myers (old and terrible), Bud Norris (rookie), and Felipe Paulino (utterly terrible) round out the starting rotation. This is one of the weakest pitching staffs that the team has had for years. The Astros used to be a team known for their pitching and now they are going to have trouble having a single 15 game winner.

Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman and Hunter Pence are really going to have to carry the team offensively this season. Michal Bourne having another career year wouldn’t hurt either. I feel slightly more confident with the offense this year even with the loss of Tejada. Hopefully this new coach will place Matsui low in the lineup where he has the least possible opportunity to do damage. Time will have to tell how well Manzella does at the big league level offensively. Having a strong bat at shortstop will be instrumental in getting the Astros back above .500 this season.

Ok, prediction time. The lack of any proven starters behind Wandy and Oswalt is clearly going to be a detriment to the team. The only wild card here will be Bud Norris who showed some real promise late last season. The lack of a veteran on the left side of the infield is still some cause for concern. I would really like the Astros to go out and look for some trading opportunities for a real third base man sometime this season. Quintero and Towles are both miserable offensively. The 7,8,9 hitters of (hopefully) Matsui, Towles/Quintero, and the pitcher will generally be automatic outs every time they come around in the lineup essentially giving the Astros 9 less outs per game.

With all that in mind, all might not be lost. While I don’t think this team has any realistic chance of making the playoffs, .500 or better might not be that far off. I think it will be fair to estimate that the 2010 Astros will finish with around a 75-87 record this year on the upper end of the scale and a 60-102 last place in the division season on the lower side. In all likely hood it will be somewhere in between those 2 outcomes. They are still no where near the level of talent they had back in 2005 when they went to the World Series. Either way, I am still so glad that it is finally baseball season once again!

I’d like to end this post by talking about the Pirates for just a little bit. You see, Pirates fans have watched their team have losing season after losing season for the better part of 20 years. Us Astros fans have nothing on the patience and loyalty of those fans in Pittsburg who have watched and waited so long for their team just to be mediocre and competitive. The current word on the street is that THIS is the year for them. This is the .500 year. So while I will always root for the Astros, I will also be secretly rooting for the Pirates to finally break this beast that has been on their back for so long. Good luck Pirates fans!